Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee, a fallen angel, may be ready to rise again. According to Quo Vadis Capital President John Zolidis, a long-term bear in the stock has recently turned bullish.

在经历了一段下坡后，中国咖啡连锁店品牌瑞幸（Luckin coffee）有望卷土重来。根据但资产管理公司 Quo Vadis Capital总裁佐利迪斯的说法，瑞幸股票的长期空头最近呈看涨趋势。

Once, Luckin Coffee was the envy of the momentum crowd on Wall Street. It saw the fast-growing Chinese coffee chain as the next Starbucks, ready to dominate the emerging market for coffee in the world's most populous nation.

曾几何时，华尔街的投资人士对瑞幸咖啡羡慕不已，他们将这家快速增长的中国咖啡连锁品牌视为星巴克的接班人，将主导人口大国中国的咖啡新兴市场。

Then came the news in early 2021 that financial statements didn't add up, placing the company on the regulators' radar both at home and in the U.S., where its shares were listed.

2021年初有消息称，该公司的财务报表存在问题，使得该公司在国内和其股票上市的美国都受到了监管机构的关注。

Soon after, Luckin Coffee had to file for bankruptcy protection under U.S. Chapter 15, which sent its shares on a tailspin. Zolidis was among the first equity analysts, who sounded the alarm on Luckin Coffee's accounting issues, and he stayed bearish while the company was under bankruptcy.

不久之后，瑞幸在纽约根据美国破产法Chapter 15申请了破产保护，其股价开始暴跌。佐利迪斯是第一批对瑞幸的财务问题敲响警钟的股票分析师之一，在公司破产期间，他一直持悲观态度。

But he turned bullish after the company emerged from bankruptcy in April of 2022, arguing that Luckin's "shares offer an uncorrelated upside opportunity driven by company-specific factors not dependent on US or China macro," in a research note to his subscribers.

但2022年4月瑞幸摆脱破产后，佐利迪斯开始变得乐观起来。在给客户的一份研究报告中，他指出，由于不依赖美国或中国宏观经济，瑞幸的股票有机会上行。

What's behind this radical change in mind?

这种思想转变的背后是什么？

"Business performing exceptionally well despite Covid lockdowns, dramatically better than public competitors. Unit growth and economics are outstanding. Valuation is very attractive and see potential double."

“在疫情期间瑞幸的业务表现仍异常出色，远超上市的业界竞争对手。单位增长和经济表现都非常出色。估值非常有吸引力，有望翻倍。”

He thinks the catalyst for these significant gains could be the relisting of the company's shares in major U.S. exchanges in 2022.

佐利迪斯认为，这些重大收益的刺激因素可能是2022年该公司股票在美国主要交易所重新上市。

Investors sifting through the OTC markets for bargains seem to share Zolidis's enthusiasm for the fallen Chinese coffee shop chain. Thus far this year, Luckin's shares have gained 12.3% compared to 3.6% of Starbucks shares.

投资者在场外交易市场寻找便宜货，他们似乎与佐利迪斯一样，对这家走下坡路的中国咖啡连锁店充满热情。今年迄今为止，瑞幸的股价上涨了12.3%，而星巴克的股价为3.6%。

Still, a couple of issues could keep the coffee chain from returning to its old glory days on Wall Street. One of them is the company's business model. It has "coffee to go" at its core instead of the "third place," as is the case for Starbucks' business model.

尽管如此，有几个问题可能会使这家咖啡连锁店无法回到其在华尔街的辉煌岁月。其一就是公司的商业模式。瑞幸的核心是“咖啡”，而不是星巴克的商业模式那样的“第三空间”。

While "coffee to go" is a simpler business model, it isn't sustainable. Instead, it turns coffee into a "commodity," leads to price competition and eliminates economic profits.

虽然“外带咖啡”是一种更简单的商业模式，但这种模式不可持续，相反，它将咖啡变成了一种“商品”，导致价格竞争，并减少了经济利润。

Then there's the stigma of accounting irregularities, which will make it hard for the company to regain its old hype among the momentum crowd. And there's the broader question as to whether China, a tea-sipping nation, will warm up to coffee.

然后是财务违规的坏名声，这将使该公司很难在势头强劲的人群中恢复往日的名声炒作。还有一个更宽泛的问题是，中国人历来崇尚喝茶，他们对咖啡的喜好会坚持多久？

词汇小结：

• long-term bear：长期熊市

• bullish：看涨的；上扬的；似公牛的

• bearish：粗暴的；如熊的；股票看跌的

• financial statements：财务报表

• file for bankruptcy protection：申请破产保护

• tailspin：混乱；旋尾降落；慌乱

• hype：大肆的宣传广告，炒作；

翻译：Gleen

材料来源：International Business Times

*配图取自网络，仅供学习分享使用，侵删